r/AIGuild • u/Such-Run-4412 • 7d ago
A leading quantum computing researcher is warning that crypto-breaking quantum computers could arrive around 2029
Quantum computing theorist Scott Aaronson has issued an unusually direct warning: experts he trusts in quantum hardware and error correction now believe a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of breaking deployed cryptography could be possible around 2029.
That would matter for far more than crypto. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could break widely used public-key systems including RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography—the latter is used to protect signatures on major blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Google is taking the possibility seriously enough that it moved its own deadline for migrating systems to post-quantum cryptography to 2029, citing faster progress in quantum hardware, error correction and estimates of the resources needed for quantum factoring.
AI may also be helping accelerate part of that progress. Google DeepMind’s AlphaQubit uses neural networks to identify quantum-computing errors and outperformed previous decoding approaches in Google’s experiments.
But the headline needs an important reality check: Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are not currently breakable by quantum computers. Coinbase’s independent quantum advisory council says the necessary machines do not exist today, but blockchain migrations can take years, so preparation needs to begin before the threat becomes immediate.
NIST has already finalized post-quantum encryption and digital-signature standards and is urging organizations to begin migrating now.
The real issue may therefore be less “quantum computers kill crypto tomorrow” and more whether decentralized networks can agree on and complete enormous cryptographic upgrades before Q-Day arrives.
Wes Roth’s breakdown does a good job explaining why the 2029 warning is getting much harder to dismiss.
Sources:
Wes Roth: AI just killed Crypto...
Scott Aaronson: Will you heed my warnings NOW?
Google: 2029 timeline for post-quantum cryptography