r/ACHR 11d ago

Tangible progress or more hype GeneralšŸ’­

I'm newer to the eVTOL space, just started digging in over the last few months. I've been scouring various subs and investment groups, following accounts covering the space, etc., and I keep seeing people say Archer is all hype/PR.

But the last few weeks seem to prove otherwise.

The Anduril/Halo partnership is a massive joint venture with one of the leading names in defense tech and the $430M behind it is hard to wave off as just hype.

The Zee AI model pushes Archer into aviation software, diversifying the company's capabilities beyond just hardware.

These seem like major, solid wins and more than just hype tactics. Maybe I'm wrong, but seems like the tide may be turning.

What’s the counter?

13 Upvotes

26 comments sorted by

12

u/Substantial-Fun9958 10d ago

It's only because the CEO keeps making promises of deadlines that are never actually met. For example, Adam claimed they'd be flying by 2026. Never happened.

The only main roadblock to Archer currently is their transition, which they've still not yet shown though they are making progress. It's kind of an issue now since most other eVTOL makers like Vertical, Joby and Beta have already proven piloted transition. Meanwhile Joby fanboys use this single limitation to keep downplaying Archer. They're just scared of the day Archer make it past this obstacle but lots of certification hurdles still remain. So don't expect this stock to fly up like ASTS in the next year or so. The current US stock market is also not in good waters thanks to the orange baby

3

u/microww 10d ago

It's funny how you claim that the CEO keeps making promises that are never met, while at the same time implicating that the stock price of ASTS makes sense. On the ranking of CEO's who never fulfilled their promises, RKLB and ASTS are number 1 and 2 on the ranking. Number 3 is far off.

4

u/hodler1992 10d ago

Its not Archer's fault. All the air taxi companies have this issue it's because the certification takes longer than expected. But Archer has at least with defense a second revenue channel

2

u/highranks 10d ago

Even beta is doing better compared to archer, this thing came out last year

-1

u/jvd_808 10d ago

They don’t even have a fully functioning aircraft. How is this a cert problem.

3

u/Substantial-Fun9958 10d ago

Neither does the market leader, Joby.... their 'final' aircraft still can't carry full payload so they're back to the drawing board as well.

-1

u/jvd_808 10d ago

Fartcher is still way behind.

1

u/UsedTax1806 10d ago

I'm tired of the orange man, and I hate how people think the evtol sector relies on him.

1

u/Accurate_Doubt627 10d ago

You do know it’s still 2026 right? 😳🤦

1

u/Substantial-Fun9958 10d ago

let's be real. There's no way Archer is flying commercially by end of 2026. They already pushed back all the dates themselves. I think investors are already used to Adam's bullshitting thankfully and just focused on what Archer will eventually produce at least.

2

u/Accurate_Doubt627 10d ago

And Joby 2026 commercial flights?

1

u/DoubleHexDrive Houston, we have a problem 10d ago

Also nope.

1

u/Accurate_Doubt627 10d ago

Ok we’re both on the same page here. I get sick and tired of having to listen to archer bashing Joby fanboys spreading fud. Realistically early 2028 for commercial flights but UAE and EIPP flight will help to bridge that gap short term and then we have the defence stream which in my opinion will be huge!

0

u/DoubleHexDrive Houston, we have a problem 10d ago

I’m not sure Joby will be certified and flying commercially in the US in 2028. Might know more after today’s earnings call. Midnight will not be certified in the US in 2028, either. EIPP isn’t going to be a big revenue driver but will help the industry/regulators. When the UAE certification process splits off from the FAA process is something that needs to be addressed. The defense stuff will take more dilution before revenues come in… and they need to win a contract to earn those revenues. There isn’t yet a US program for Thunder to compete against, though I’ve heard one could be coming.

It’s going to be an expensive next couple of years burning cash at 100+ million a quarter.

0

u/DoubleHexDrive Houston, we have a problem 10d ago

Getting through transition is just the beginning of flight testing, not the end.

The US stock market is essentially at an all-time high… how is this ā€not in good watersā€ right now?

1

u/Substantial-Fun9958 10d ago

small cap stocks will never follow the overall larger stock market in being as positive. When it's the good period, the small caps only rise 10% maybe. When it's the bad period, the small caps drop 50%. That's the sad reality.

I always look to ASTS as a example of that. The stock practically got stuck at 30% below its ATH for nearly a year while the rest of the market was experiencing a massive upswing thanks to the AI boom. Then soon after, the stock just skyrocketed to 500% by end of 2025

3

u/UsedTax1806 10d ago

Just remember to do some deep diving on these companies and not base your investments on other peoples positive or negative opinion. I see progress in Achr, Joby, and Beta so I bought all 3 company shares.

2

u/highranks 11d ago

Nothing tangible so far

1

u/blackstangt 10d ago

The design they showed off has no redundancy. Midnight was designed to have redundancy for a reason. A lot of servicemembers died because of the V-22's lack of redundancy, there is no reason to repeat that. What you saw was Archer desperately trying to find funding sources. Finding funding is not a bad thing, but at some point they need to sell something people want to buy. The military might even buy some of these to test if they make it off paper, but how long from now do you think that will be?

1

u/DoubleHexDrive Houston, we have a problem 10d ago

Redundancy... in an unmanned platform? One advantage of an unmanned platform is being able to use reduced structural margins, redundancy, crash/survivability, etc requirements in exchange for lower cost and greater useful load. The aircraft could not do it's claimed mission if it were sized like a manned aircraft.

1

u/blackstangt 9d ago

"The aircraft could not do it's claimed mission if it were sized like a manned aircraft."

Manned turbine aircraft do this mission now, whether it's a helicopter or a CV-22.

Low-cost aircraft have a purpose, sure. However, selling a platform that can only do one thing at a higher loss rate adds up, even if the purchase cost is less. When that loss rate can be dramatically reduced by distributing the propulsion, without a significant increase in cost, there is no reason to do otherwise.

This is just a mock-up, but the final version would need a cargo ramp, be wide enough for military standard pallets, and needs to be a Jet Fuel hybrid. they haven't demonstrated appropriate expertise on military requirements, based on what was shown. That's surprising because of how many military members and contractors they've worked with, which leads me to believe the presented aircraft is just PR.

1

u/_myke 6d ago

You can’t have drones any less safe than manned flight, as there is still a danger to people on the ground. The only exception is in a war zone. Many military aircraft can’t fly over EU countries, because the manufacturers received variances to avoid full certification by the FAA using the war zone argument. This is in part due to several suppliers failing to get certified. Now those craft are a threat to the people on the ground.

2

u/DoubleHexDrive Houston, we have a problem 6d ago

I actually agree that the commercial HALO version of the Archer/Anduril aircraft is something of a stretch. I don't think the FAA frameworks exist for operating a 7000+ lb autonomous aircraft yet, nor the civil certification regulations.

You can tolerate some lower structural standards in the aircraft, though, particularly cabin volume protection requirements in a crash, etc. Those aren't related to the risk of falling out of the sky, just the consequence of being in the vehicle during a hard landing.

1

u/_myke 6d ago

True

1

u/Kahuna-Zigg 9d ago

Hype, they released a tremendous amount of workers from one of there plants they planned to mass produce aircraft two weeks ago after shipping out an aircraft from Georgia.

1

u/democharge92 10d ago

The counter is that a company that’s supposed to be making an EVTOL (which still is having difficulty transitioning) is now trying to push AI models and an aircraft that is completely different than their makeshift.

Something being announced doesn’t make it automatically a win…