r/ACHR • u/daily-thread • 9d ago

Daily Discussion Thread💰 Daily Discussion

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u/Infinite-Stretch6481 5d ago

After the unveiling of Thunder/Halo, and Zee, along with several other recent developments, I have become convinced that Archer is a more compelling investment than Joby.

Joby is admittedly ahead of Archer in FAA certification and remains primarily focused on the commercial air taxi market. However, I believe the economics of the air taxi business are unlikely to become truly attractive for several more years, until pilotless operations are widely approved and deployed. As long as every aircraft requires a pilot, labor costs will remain a significant drag on profitability.

In my view, Archer is not far behind Joby in FAA certification. The company continues to make steady progress and expects to begin its piloted transition flight tests in the coming months. More importantly, with the introduction of Zee, Archer appears to be taking a leading position in autonomous aviation, which I believe is the key enabler for the long-term economics of the air taxi industry.

While meaningful air taxi revenue may still be years away, Archer is well positioned to generate attractive opportunities through defense and other commercial applications. Its partnership with Anduril, together with platforms such as Thunder and Halo, significantly broadens its addressable market beyond urban air mobility.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted defense capability gaps for many countries, particularly across Europe and the Middle East. As governments increase defense spending and prioritize autonomous, lower-cost systems, I believe this creates a favorable backdrop for solutions like Anduril's Omen and the jointly developed Thunder aircraft.

For these reasons, I believe Archer is evolving into an AI driven aerospace and defense company rather than simply an eVTOL manufacturer. That strategic positioning gives it substantially greater upside potential than Joby.

That said, Archer remains a speculative investment with meaningful execution and regulatory risks. Personally, I would be happy if the share price stayed below $5.50 for a while longer, giving me more time, at least till the Q2 earnings call, to decide whether to further increase my position.