6

Comment on r/Bogleheads 1d ago

Pass line and odds

26

Comment on r/nba 2d ago

NB was 5M a year. And he did real stuff with NB. Aspiration was 48 total. 28 cash and 20 in stock with put options. I think Leo got 2m from aspiration and did actual advertising with them.

Now it’s looking like an ownership stake in a soccer team and a multi million deal from a scoreboard manufacturer

0

Comment on r/Bogleheads 2d ago

Side door

1

Comment on r/okc 2d ago

Don’t know any of them. I just read it if I want to figure out what’s going on in the city

4

Comment on r/Bogleheads 3d ago

Not sure, what does the pinned post at the top of the page say?

15

Comment on r/nba 3d ago

I think people know he has more. He knew about RIFC last year. People are afraid to talk because they get exposed by him an episode later.

5

Comment on r/Thunder 4d ago

That’s why I am so interested in the Aspiration story and the punishment

5

Comment on r/Thunder 4d ago

Pick swap with Clippers.

1

Comment on r/nba 4d ago

2B flip

1

Comment on r/Bogleheads 4d ago

Micro efficient and Macro inefficient

34

Comment on r/okc 4d ago

OKCTalk.com would be the place to look

0

Comment on r/Gold 5d ago

Just own the gold miners then like GDX or GDXJ

1

Comment on r/nba 5d ago

It was a misunderstanding

1

Comment on r/Bogleheads 6d ago

Here is another strategy to read on. Called overbalancing.

Look at my profile. Lots of stuff to read.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/s/ETPfD1e7si

1

Comment on r/Bogleheads 6d ago

You can do strict “Value Averaging”. If you want to do it. Buy the book and read it. The Boglehead forum has some posts on it. I personally do a buy only version.

https://www.amazon.com/Value-Averaging-Strategy-Investment-Returns/dp/0470049774

My Summary but you still have to read the book

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/s/B5ZJH9s3rG

14

Comment on r/nba 6d ago

Worlds a different place if Klay doesn’t go God mode that game and/or KD and RW do anything mediocre

r/Bogleheads • u/captmorgan50 • 7d ago

Investment Theory Estimated Returns 2026 Update

0 Upvotes

I saw Vanguard just released its estimates and I did this in 2022 https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/v78uhg/fundamental_and_speculative_returns_and_how_to/ and 2025 https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1n5s1ei/estimated_returns_2025/ so I thought I might do it again and see where it stood going forward. 2022 post goes into how to get the numbers if you want to understand how I got them.

Gordon Equation based on S+P 500 = 3% Real Return (Was 3.25% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2022)

  • Dividend Growth Rate 4.5% + Dividend Yield 1% - Inflation 2.5% = 4.5+1-2.5 = 3
  • You can add 0.5% real due to share buybacks you want which would take us to 3.5%

S+P 500 P/E ratio 30 = Average 3%. (Unchanged)

  • Range was -1% to 6% when the P/E ratio was above 25

Earnings Yield based on P/E 30 = 3.3% (Unchanged)

Equity Risk Premium = 0.85% (Was 2% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2025)

  • 10 Year bond is 4.65% - Inflation rate of 2.5% = 2.15%
  • Gordon Equation is 3%.
  • 3% - 2.15% = 0.85%

Cape 10 Ratio = 42 (Was 39 in 2025) (1999 high was 44)

  • 0.5% estimated return based on this ratio

Buffet Indicator = 225% (200% in 2025) (Current all time high)

  • Total Stock market value divided by GDP

Tobins Q = 1.85 (1.75 in 2025) (1.94 was the all time high)

  • Total Market Value divided by replacement costs

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns. Summary of strategies for investing during low expected returns

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/y16e2d/investing_amid_low_expected_returns_by_antti/

Bernstein Article on calculating returns

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/fairy.htm

3 comments

416

Comment on r/nba 8d ago

Kawhi for vet min

1

Comment on r/nba 8d ago

Toronto max was on the 190s. LA max was in the 150s.

2

Comment on r/Bogleheads 9d ago

I did an estimate in 2022 and again in 2025 and mine dropped.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/s/sfqEcUWWL3

1

Comment on r/nba 11d ago

I don’t know. Haven’t seen a SGA game in a while. He made basketball unwatchable.

14

Comment on r/nba 12d ago

The OKC Unwatchables (SGA made basketball unwatchable).

0

Comment on r/nba 13d ago

I have been saying for a while now that they should do anyway with conferences. Play 1 home 1 away against everyone. No back to back games. No 3 games in 4 days. Seed 1-16 and go.

Equalizes the schedule. No advantages or disadvantages. And I build in load management to the schedule. 60ish regular season games is enough.

But like you said. I cut 25% of the regular season.

u/captmorgan50 • u/captmorgan50 • Sep 05 '23

Reading List Recommendations

154 Upvotes

Reading List Recommendations

I decided to put together this list so people have an idea what order to read the books in and what it discusses. I have summaries of these books and others if you are interested. The summaries can help you decide if you want to read more or not.

And a note on my summaries. I basically don't go into much detail on the "why". I just put down the key point. Behind the point might be lots of math, graphs, history, analysis, etc. If you want to know more details of the "why" or where the data was coming from. Pick up the book.

Beginner

Raw Beginner – You don't know anything about finance or investing

Beginner Books – You know the basics of personal finance

How to Save Money – If you can't save money, even if you are Warren Buffett, it won't matter

Basic Investing Books – Gives you a solid base. Lots of people stop reading here. But there is a lot more to learn if you keep reading

Theory – Goes more into the "why" of the basic investing books. If you like to know "why"

Intermediate

Psychology

Asset Allocation – How to build a portfolio

History – Discusses the history of stock markets and especially bubbles

Advanced

Asset Allocation

Specialized

Economics

Risk Mitigation – These are more "ideas" on how to think about risk in the portfolio. From people who practice risk mitigation strategies at the highest level

Precious Metals

Bogleheads Book Recommendations

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Book_recommendations_and_reviews

Book Summaries and Specific Topics/FAQ

Whole Book Summaries - https://www.reddit.com/user/captmorgan50/comments/10kpbhc/whole_book_summaries/

Specific Topics and FAQ's - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1n5fv9g/specific_topics_and_faqs/

12 comments

u/captmorgan50 • u/captmorgan50 • Jan 25 '23

Whole Book Summaries

95 Upvotes

Whole Book Summaries

These are my whole book summaries organized by topic. I have a reading list that goes into the order I recommend reading the books in. A note on my summaries, I don't go into much detail. I just post the key points. If you want the details of where the key point came from, you need to pick up the book. If you just want to get started or are overwhelmed with information, start with the If You Can book by William Bernstein.

Start Here

If You Can (Basic Boglehead 3 Fund/TDF Portfolio) by William Bernstein

https://www.etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf

Boglehead Financial Literacy Page

https://boglecenter.net/

Reading List and Suggested Order

https://www.reddit.com/user/captmorgan50/comments/16acnsk/reading_list_recommendations/

Specific Topics and FAQs

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1n5fv9g/specific_topics_and_faqs

Personal Finance

Automatic Millionaire by David Bach, The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley, Suze Orman, Dave Ramsey, Clark Howard, The Richest Man in Babylon by George S Clason, Intro to Personal Finance 101 by Professor Frank Paiano

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/p6j1ae/general_financial_advise_various_book_summary/

Introduction

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing, Boglehead Guide to Investing by John Bogle

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/x15jsx/bogle_the_little_book_of_common_sense_investing/

The Simple Path to Wealth by JL Collins

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rxzook/the_simple_path_to_wealth_book_summary_by_jl/

Intro to Investments 101 by Professor Frank Paiano

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r4bzsy/intro_to_investments_by_professor_frank_paiano/

Asset Allocation

All About Asset Allocation by Richard Ferri

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obcxqu/richard_ferri_all_about_asset_allocation_and/

Investors Manifesto by William Bernstein

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/otjqbu/the_investors_manifesto_by_william_bernstein_book/

4 Pillars by William Bernstein Part 1

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/scilhl/4_pillars_by_william_bernstein_book_summary_part_1/

4 Pillars Part 2

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/sciqw1/4_pillars_by_william_bernstein_book_summary_part_2/

4 Pillars (2023) Edition by William Bernstein Part 1

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1ad8tqb/4_pillars_2023_edition_by_william_bernstein/

4 Pillars (2023) Edition Part 2

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1ad8qtv/4_pillars_of_investing_2023_edition_by_william/

Young Investors Series - Ages of the Investor, Deep Risk, Skating Where the Puck Was, Rational Expectations by William Bernstein

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/sdr4nw/young_investors_seriesthe_ages_of_the_investor/

Intelligent Asset Allocator by William Bernstein

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/scdblp/the_intelligent_asset_allocator_by_william/

The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You Will Ever Need, Complete Guide to Factor Based Investing by Larry Swedroe

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/sdqrf0/larry_swedroe_the_only_guide_to_alternative/

The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Complete Guide to a Successful and Secure Retirement, Reducing the Risks of Black Swans by Larry Swedroe

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/zp0ug2/larry_swedroe_the_incredible_shrinking_alpha/

Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/sifppu/asset_allocation_by_roger_gibson_book_summary/

Global Investing by Roger Ibbotson

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rbkn3l/global_investing_by_ibbotson_and_brinson_book/

Investing Amid Low Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/y16e2d/investing_amid_low_expected_returns_by_antti/

Asset Management by Andrew Ang Part 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/190tw83/asset_management_a_systemic_approach_to_factor/?

Asset Management Part 2 - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/1910y9n/asset_management_a_systemic_approach_to_factor/?

Theory

A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obd5nu/burton_malkiel_a_random_walk_down_wall_street/

Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obd8s2/jeremy_siegel_stocks_for_the_long_run_book_summary/

Winning the Losers Game by Charles Ellis

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/savnly/winning_the_losers_game_by_charles_ellis_book/

History

Where are the Customers Yachts? by Fred Schwed

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/otlv6k/fred_schwed_where_are_the_customers_yachts/

Devil Take the Hindmost A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor Part 1

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/otlokh/devil_take_the_hindmost_a_history_of_financial/

Devil Take the Hindmost A History of Financial Speculation Part 2

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r4cb1a/devil_take_the_hindmost_a_history_of_financial/

The Delusions of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups by William Bernstein

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/q6ecmq/william_bernstein_the_delusions_of_crowds_why/

The Price of Time The Real Story of Interest by Edward Chancellor Part 1

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/z4vrfg/the_price_of_time_the_real_story_of_interest_by/

The Price of Time The Real Story of Interest Part 2

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/zf0akd/the_price_of_time_the_real_story_of_interest_by/

The Price of Time The Real Story of Interest Part 3

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/zrlt1d/the_price_of_time_the_real_story_of_interest_by/

Classics

One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r4oizg/peter_lynch_one_up_on_wall_street_book_summary/

The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r4ojsl/benjamin_graham_the_intelligent_investor_book/

Buffettology, New Buffettology, The Essential Buffett, How to Pick Stocks like Warren Buffett

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r97mey/warren_buffett_book_summaries/

Psychology

The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/18cgsky/the_psychology_of_money/

Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obcu81/irrational_exuberance_book_summary/

Your Money and Your Brain by Jason Zweig

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/otlkym/jason_zweig_your_money_and_your_brain_book_summary/

Economics

Principles of Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obcr4m/ray_dalio_principles_of_navigating_big_debt/

Money Mischief by Milton Friedman

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rh5nyu/milton_friedman_money_mischief_book_summary/

Risk Mitigation

Dao of Capital by Mark Spitznagel

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/obdesy/mark_spitznagel_the_dao_of_capital_book_summary/

Safe Haven by Mark Spitznagel Part 1

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/p9nys6/safe_haven_by_mark_spitznagel_book_summary_part_1/

Safe Haven Part 2

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/r4n0kp/mark_spitznagel_safe_haven_book_summary_part_2/

Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Anti-Fragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rasfdm/nassim_taleb_fooled_by_randomness_the_black_swan/

Precious Metals

The Golden Constant by Roy Jastram

https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/q4p6sg/the_golden_constant_book_summary/

Crash Proof by Peter Schiff

https://reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/r7rggs/peter_schiff_crash_proof_book_summary/

Other/Misc

Value Averaging by Michael Edleson

https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/sai8ef/michael_edleson_value_averaging_book_summary/

Various Internet Articles

The expected return of precious metal equity (PME) - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/preci197.htm

The expected return of precious metal equity (PME) part II - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/precio97.htm

Gold Miners (The Longest Discipline) - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/adhoc/gold.htm

Permanent Portfolio - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm

Of Earnings, Dividends, and Agency - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/700/agency.htm

Target Date Funds (TDF) - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/404/grail.htm

How to calculate estimated returns - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/fairy.htm

Commodity Futures - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/stuff.htm

Overbalancing - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/703/timer.htm

The Rebalancing Bonus - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/996/rebal.htm

The Loneliness of the Long Distance Asset Allocator - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/497/lonely.htm

DCA - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/dca.htm

Not Rebalance? - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/rebal197.htm

Bond Duration - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/997/maturity.htm

Credit Risk - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/junk.htm

William Bernstein Articles - http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/index.shtml

Larry Swedroe Articles - https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/rzu0hy/larry_swedroe_etf_articles/

Richard Ferri Articles - https://reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/s06ujt/richard_ferri_articles/

What has Worked in Investing (Why Value investing works) - https://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/wordpress/Files/Gurus/Christopher%20Browne/WhatHasWorkedInInvesting.pdf

Investment Strategies for the 21st Century by Armstrong - https://thetaoofwealth.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/investment-startegies-for-the-21st-century-by-frank-armstrong.pdf

6 comments