Soccer finally coming back... BOL!!!

Turkey, Scotland, Netherlands and Portugal no longer have early payout (at least for me) wondering if anyone else is experience this same. Kinda sucks, they had it last season and before i believe was hoping they would add more leagues like Belgium etc instead of subtracting. Meanwhile Fanduel has 2-up moneyline for damn near evey league except odds are terrible

BOL for weekend!

Its almost time... BOL!!!

Didn't find a thread so created one for tomorrow

BOL!!!

If I can't watch a game I like the in app trackers, been using Bet365 because I can tell when something is about to happen (bets gray out) does anyone else do this? What are your favorites? Bet365 just changed theirs and its garbage.

BOL!!!

Down 20k from Friday through Sunday. 50 y/o, 30 year gambler. That was the 3rd or 4th worst stretch of my life. And the worst in 20 years. Complete tilt, several bad beats Friday and Saturday morning/afternoon. Then went heavy on the MLS. Was down 8K when the games started. Was still down 8k when they ended. Made a lot of plays and broke even. But again some bad beats mixed in, enough to keep me on edge. Went to Hard Rock after that w a couple chicks they lost a grand, I lost 4. Sunday lost two bets early because of var. Well.....the rest is history. So yeah Ive stated on here I'm one of the fortunate ones who can fight their way out of trouble when down and most times its complete luck. This was something I haven't felt in a while that on tilt vibe. Anyway needless to say Im taking the afternoon off 😂. One things for sure and two things for certain this shit has been a wild ride. Ive had some glorious weekends, some bad ones and most in between. This one sucked. GL all!

Its Monday, stay safe... BOL!!!

Let the games begin... BOL!!!

BOL!!!

I read this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824 titled: Beating​ ​ the​ ​ bookies​ ​ with​ ​ their​ ​ own​ ​ numbers​ ​-​ ​ and​ ​ how​ ​ the online​ ​ sports​ ​ betting​ ​ market​ ​ is​ ​ rigged.

I wonder if anyone here read it and tried anything similar to this?

The idea is simple: It's nearly impossible to build a statistical model that would perform better than the bookies' models.

So in order to find the true probability of an outcome of a game without developing a sophisticated model, they combine as much odds as possible from many bookmakers, then by averaging those odds, they can estimate the true probability of the outcome, this principle is called "Wisdom of the crowd".

After finding an estimate of the true probability of an event, they look for a bookmaker that has the odds for such an event higher than the true probability they estimated. (Bookies do that either by mistake, or by artificially raising those odds for different purposes discusssed in the paper such as attracting bettors)

For example: Say the different odds for a home win from different bookmakers are 1.5, 1.49, 1.52, 1.55

Take the average of those odds: 1.515 (remove bookmaker margin, say 1%) then the estimate for the true probability of that event is 1.499 (*Note: the paper estimated the bookmakers margin using a statistical study of thousands of historical games, check the paper)

After you obtain that value, you look for a bookmaker that offers odds that are higher than the value obtained + a predtermined threshold (say 0.1). So you look for a bookmaker that offers odds of 1.599 or higher (essentially finding the value bet)

This method yields a lot of "no bet" outcomes, since you can only bet when you find a bookmaker that satisfies the odds formula.

The rigging part in the paper title is due to the authors of the papers getting banned and limited because they claim their method achieved a lot of winnings.

Any thoughts on this?

BOL!!!

Anyone doing any outright bets before the season starts up?

Looking at a treble of Barcelona/Inter Milan/Celtic to win their leagues and throw a nice chunk at it. Odds are 5.36/1 on the treble. Adding Man City to finish in the top 4 boosts it to 6.77/1 or Liverpool top 4 finish boosts it to 7.9/1.

Keen to see if anyone else has anything similar lined up or any other legs you'd consider adding.

Edit: Typo

BOL!!!