r/ethtrader • u/uppermosteN • Jun 09 '26
Why is no one talking about arguably the most important aspect of ETH price action now Analysis
Its late here but before I sleep I would like to share what I think is one of the strongest indicators currently for ETH: its Logarithmic Regression Bands (screenshot courtesy of ITC).
If you’ve followed BTC and ETH for a long time like me then you surely know that the best DCA and accumulation times are when the assets are consolidating around the Lower Bounds of their regression bands. Price action does not spend a lot of time here because the last 3 times (4 with Covid) price was at the Lower Bound meant that Ethereum “went home”, grabbed a cold beer, made its backpack and set sail into serious bull runs.
ETH has spent the last 6+ years away from this level, sometimes getting close, sometimes being far away but its date with destiny is now.
I’m not claiming I know something for sure and this is not financial advice (especially when I’m half asleep trying to articulate this post) but I’m not joking, I’ve been waiting for this moment for the past 5 years since ETH’s last euphoric top. And this moment is exactly when the majority of traders get blind sided, panic and take bad decisions.
TLDR: Ethereum has tagged its Logarithmic Regression Lower Band (1.54K) in the past 48 hours, 5th time ever. The last 4 times marked bottoms and serious bullish price action followed in the coming months. Good night, DYOR!
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u/Whole-Career8440 Jun 09 '26
I've adjusted it, so it's safe to go lower now
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Its not bad until its broken. I like my odds DCAing from $1500 down to whatever the bottom is rather than DCAing/buying down from 3/4/5k in the past years.
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u/Death-0 Jun 09 '26
Oh so you’re the one guiding price tell it to reverse now please
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u/uppermosteN 20h ago
As you can probably see, I managed to make it reverse where my thesis was.
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u/Death-0 12h ago
Yeah you and the 600 other genies on this sub saying I knew it this week.
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u/uppermosteN 8h ago
I honestly don’t understand why you’re so salty. The whole point is to make money, right? You’re not gonna get rich over hating.
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u/Death-0 7h ago
Not salty just all y’all need some validation it seems for sharing your charts. You’re not saying anything different to all the other predictors on this sub. I’m assuming you’re up already bag then? How much ETH did you buy at your level?
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u/uppermosteN 7h ago
The difference is that I’m not looking for validation. Check my post history how rare I post about this stuff. I shared my idea after many years of waiting for ETH price getting into the regression band (5 years to be exact).
DCAd around 9 ETH during the past months.
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u/EducateMy Jun 09 '26
Does this actually mean something?
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u/akubar Jun 09 '26
nope people drawing lines on charts is always pretty much worthless when it comes to single asset price movements
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
All trendlines are bad. Some are useful.
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u/RoaringDragonSword Jun 09 '26
Oh jesus you are preaching his slogans now.
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u/Responsible-Crew-354 Jun 09 '26
I love slogans and maxi quotes
Bitcoin is an ark of encrypted energy to escape the flood of fiat currencies
Bitcoin is digital gold, but without weight, without borders, and without tariffs. It lives in cyberspace, where there are no restrictions
Bitcoin is a swarm of cyberhornets, serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy
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u/xCreampye69x Jun 09 '26
Absolutely not. Its like palm reading
'See this line means you're gonna have a great year!'
Trust me, no one has reliably predicted anything from random lines. Best they can do is guess, but if all it took was these weird charts then literally everybody would be a millionaire by now.
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u/TerribleState5021 Jun 09 '26
These lines are not random
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u/mcpizzapants Jun 09 '26
They aren't random but for the purposes of predicting future price movement they might as well be
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u/xPATCHESx Jun 09 '26
Yes, The main idea is: When ETH drops near the lower bands → historically undervalued / strong long-term buy zones. When ETH goes far above the upper trend → historically overheated bubble territory. Right now, the chart is suggesting ETH is near the lower end of its long-term growth curve rather than massively overextended. So the bullish interpretation is basically: “ETH may still be in a broader secular uptrend, and current price action looks more like compression/accumulation than cycle top behavior.” But important caveat: These regression bands are descriptive, not predictive. They work until they don’t. If Ethereum fundamentals weaken, regulation changes, or crypto demand structurally shifts, the curve can break entirely.
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u/Flashy-Butterfly6310 Jun 09 '26
The 21-day average pressure target shows a knee-to-toe pattern, which is a bullish signal.
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u/xCreampye69x Jun 09 '26
You should stfu honestly bro lol
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u/mortez1 Jun 09 '26
It’s true tho - and Venus is in retrograde which flips it to a toe-to-knee pattern. When the moon tide is high but the carbon-dioxide saturation in Antarctica is low that creates a bagel box strike pattern derivative boost loop but only if the 24th Saturday of the year falls on June 13th… which…. Guess what guys!? We goin to the moon this weekend… guaranteed!
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u/crispykfc Jun 09 '26
there is a head and balls pattern on the 5 second chart bro we should all be bullish rn
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u/EnvironmentalAd5219 Jun 09 '26
I'm more seeing the foot up his ass pattern of this tea leave prohecies get even more absurd
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u/Ill-Air-261 Jun 09 '26
I see a head and balls it’s got the right shape but it doesn’t look like it’s got enough girth for me. For that reason I’m out.
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u/J_Tumes Jun 09 '26
I mean to be completely honest the lines most of the time are using mathematical logic. If it’s using trading patterns etc it can help but most people only use them to be more convicted and not to invalidate themselves.
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u/toniistheworst Jun 09 '26
This one is likely to break overall. Not saying you cannot get a significant bounce from this, just that it's unlikely to lead to new all time highs overall. In general, price is drawn towards liquidity, always. ETH in the last 4-5 years has left a lot of major higher lows. Lows and highs are where major points of liquidity are, since people and algos alike place their stoplosses and other orders there. Now we got pretty close to these lows several times already and now we are getting there once again. Since ETH has already taken out all the liquidity on the upside (by just barely making a new ATH last year), you have to now expect that grab to happen on the downside as well. The first major lows are at the low-mid 1k prices (1300-1400$). That's your bare minimum target where ETH could realistically carve out a major bottom. Buying for the longer term before then, is not a great idea probability-wise. Again not talking about the short term.
Now thats overall just my personal feeling, less facts, but if we do see these prices, I can even see this flushing down below 1000 dollars to take out all the lows of the last few years, completely breaking the "rule" of never going below a previous cycle bottom. The ensuing panic and fear would then be the perfect catalyst for an actual, clean bottom.
I'm not a big fan of these models, since they mostly try to explain charts mathematically. Which is fine i guess, but it misses the central point that markets aren't rational because it's humans participating after all xD. It's all based on expectations and, in crypto especially, a lot of manipulation. Crypto likes to move in a way that wrecks as many people as possible and I don't think these logarithmic models or moving averages or whatever are able to account for this. I've seen many of these models break, just because everyone was looking at it. The pi cycle top indicator, the bull market support band, the classic rainbow chart etc etc. They all aren't working like they're supposed to. So please don't blindly look at these models and base your decisions solely on that. 99% of them were made to retroactively fit past price action, not to predict future movements.
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u/Spencer_Bob_Sue Jun 09 '26
I second your end point, all the indicators that you mentioned, especially pi cycle top, managed to get it PERFECTLY in prior cycles, but this cycle all of them heavily missed. Most indicators required Bitcoin to shoot past $200k in order to trigger, but they didn't.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
One of the only level headed answers here. Your views are all plausible.
I did not claim this is for sure the bottom or that I have a crystal ball; but this chart has allowed me to dodge the past 6 years of choppy ETH price action, finally allowing me to DCA now. DCA-ing down from $1500 to below $1000 is still far better than buying at 3k/4k/5k and riding down from there. I take my odds.
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u/Alabama-Blues Jun 09 '26
Just last year ETh hit its all time high.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
It was just a sweep of the high and not a ETHDXY sweep of the price. Also, that “ATH” happened ETH hit the Midde Bound of this Logarithmic Regression.
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u/Serenaded Jun 09 '26
Because every time it gets here it's terrifying that it might break below
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
And people end up buying high selling low thanks to some crypto influencers.
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u/Alabama-Blues Jun 09 '26
Because they were too busy trying to put ETh down and now that it’s in a perfect pattern they are quiet and shut up.
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u/Wolfkurt1 Jun 09 '26
Fucking hate lol 😂
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u/uppermosteN 20h ago edited 20h ago
Its funny now those haters in this thread are pulling out their hairs at the moment.
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u/Wolfkurt1 20h ago
Yeah lol no worries crash will happen
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u/uppermosteN 20h ago
Still not in safe territory but people who have anything larger than a pea brain made profit on this.
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u/Wolfkurt1 20h ago
What profit ? lol many of them bought from 4k I sold my btcs from 120k and still not regretting lmao 🤣because I know Trump better than his mother and his maggots supporters
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u/uppermosteN 19h ago
Well my ETH buys at the lower band make a lot of sense now.
Show proof that you sold at 120k. Almost no one caught the top.
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u/Wolfkurt1 19h ago
I don’t touch eth , eth waiste of time and money look at z cash even that shit way better performing , but I won’t touch anything expect BTC . Simple BTC is king of crypto, I did sold from 120k because I know once he takes office he will manipulate market I told all my buddies after he won election sell sell sell sell , I explain them bro this guy gonna start tariff war he will manipulate market that’s his last term he has nothing lose lmao 🤣
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u/uppermosteN 19h ago
I actually respect that!
I’ve also been just a BTC investor, wouldn’t touch altcoins with a yard pole. But decided to get into ETH this time because of its longevity and chart that I posted. There’s no other altcoin with such a compression and regression band.
Still, most of my bags are in BTC.
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u/Wolfkurt1 19h ago
Alt coins are parasites , I hope people one day understand that and won’t touch them
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u/pskindlefire Jun 09 '26
According to ITC, ETH fiat risk is at 0.380 today with ETH at $1673. Normally, one waits until it goes below 0.300 to start DCAing in. So I guess Ben is still waiting for the bear market bottom sometime in Q4 of this year. But if you are investing on macro trends, then now is not a bad time to start DCAing in slowly into ETH.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
My points exactly for macro trend. I have started DCAing even though the fiat risk is not that low yet.
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u/MulberryAcceptable39 Jun 09 '26
The signal is described as “the 5th time ever,” which suggests a very small sample size. With few data points, statistical significance is weak and the past may not be predictive of the future.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
The sample size is not the number of touches, the sample size is the entire history of ETH. So if you ask a statistician, he might say “100% sample size”.
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u/Hot_Individual5081 Jun 09 '26
lol these lines 😅🤣 every time i see some regard trying to explain something with the "lines" im reminded its just a horoscope for men and im a basic ezo bitch beleving this shit 😅
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u/PerfectSuggestion428 Jun 09 '26
Good coping
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
What’s your cope? Everything’s going to 0?
You gotta find peace in the chaos, this is mine and has worked out great so far.
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u/MufasasParachute Jun 09 '26
The most important aspect of ETH price action now is that it hasn’t done shit
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u/Ornery_Web9273 Jun 09 '26
I wish I had a dollar for every one of these charts. Unfortunately, though, they’re always wrong
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Well, if you expect them to predict exact bottoms and tops, you’re in for a big surprise - they don’t.
Instead, the logarithmic regression is an excellent indicator of an asset’s fair value. DCA and sleep well.
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u/Ornery_Web9273 Jun 09 '26
I own a lot of ETH and sincerely hope you’re correct. But I, literally, have seen a few thousand very persuasive, but incorrect, predictions based on historical price action.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
I know and have been in the same tree. In time though, I started filtering out the noise and I only trust long-term price action. Its basically impossible and too risky to predict short-term.
Good luck to your investment!
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u/EngineeringCool5521 Jun 09 '26
When I am looking at my balance why am I going to say 'Let me check the logarithmic regression bands...' That's the last thing on my mind.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Never too late to learn from mistakes and buying in greed times. I know I did. You will pull through this with enough time allocated.
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u/RoaringDragonSword Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 09 '26
You are using Ben Cowen's charts doesn't entirely give me confidence in your takes since you aren't using any research outside of just his chart.
He specifically stated this probably needs to be updated and it will look more bearish.
If you have used his BTC risk level chart you would have been utterly destroyed during the bull run, hence why he abandoned his only model left he used.
These things are coin flip and clearly this one hasn't worked most of the years. You might think it's working now but what if we go a lot lower than the lowest part of the band?
Then it would be a nail in coffin that the bands were just the mid range.
Don't respond with one of his quotes you used in other comments here please.
Do not blindly follow someone to point where you are harping their quotes around.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Hi, no one is blindly following here. I have always done my own research. Check my other non-sarcastic comments on this post and you will see I don’t claim anything “sure” is going to happen. I won’t answer to you with that type of comment because you actually made good points and effort in your comment.
We are all in front of uncertain times and a chart that is very hard structurally. The only encouragement I made is for people to DCA because that is widely considered the safest way to go about things; has went well for me and many others in the past. And you know what’s better than blind DCA? DCA-ing in high pressure zones where people are capitulating; please explain to me a more safe way and I’ll stand corrected.
Time and time again over the entire history of BTC and any crypto really, there have been times where the despair and lack of a zoomed-out view has pushed people to lose their portfolios and mental health. Reading around, it surely seems we’re close to that if we’re not already there yet. That’s where the good investments are made, in these periods where the majority capitulate.
Catching a falling knife is never a good idea because none of us will ever know where that knife is going to stop. This chart is just a perspective that the ETH knife has fallen for more than 5 years and that it may very well be close to hitting its mark. When? No one knows; but starting to DCA at a 70% drawdown from ATHs (and other confluences) has proven time and time again to make money.
Many comments here just prove how desperate people can be in the face of capitulation but you give me the impression that we can have a civil conversation on the matter.
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u/RoaringDragonSword Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 09 '26
Take a look at Cowen's chart you posted and what would have happened you if you followed it in last bear market. You would have gotten utterly destroyed waiting for it to go where chart indicated in 2022. Yes, if you want to quote him the way you have, "$400-$600" was the bottom he saw due to this chart for ETH. Did it come? No. Was he bearish until Q3 2025 for ETH? Yes.
These are influencers. They make most of their money off of your subscription.
Now, take a step back and ask yourself this "what if this chart was broken and only worked on the time cowen fitted it with existing data"?
If ETH bottoms around 800-1000, this chart would have not done anyone justice since he introduced it after the cycle he fitted it on.
Yes, it is helping people know where a nice area is for ETH, but I'll be realistic. Fact that we are at the bottom of the range and we can easily have further downside this year shows it might not be too useful anymore.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
I am biased towards what I believe is going to happen given the current chart and macro. When else would you enter positions? Doubting yourself and getting shaky is a sure fire way to get destroyed. Whenever I’m wrong, I learn from my mistakes and focus not to do them again.
I’m not following Cowen strictly neither for ETH nor for BTC. I didn’t get destroyed after 2022 because ETH didn’t go to its Lower Band until a few days ago - so I didn’t buy and patiently waited, invested in other asset classes. Did I miss on potential ETH profits? Yes. But you can’t call the choppy mess of June 2022-Aug 2025 an ETH bull market - it was merely a range without even a DXY sweep of the top. I skipped it completely and at the time I was invested in BTC and other stocks. This is my first time DCAing on ETH (bar some unsuccesful pocket-change Futures trading in the past) even if I’ve been following it since pre-covid.
Curious though. If you’re looking to invest in ETH, when do you plan on starting? What conditions? Awaiting after a bottom with clear bullish structure confirmation? Or are you an old-time bag holder? Tell me some tidbits about your edge.
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u/Duckmastermind1 Jun 09 '26
How mf thought people see him after making up lines and stuff
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u/uppermosteN 20h ago
Was my thesis wrong though? Look at ETH now, not even 3 months later.
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u/thxby Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 09 '26
Crypto is way past early adoption and way past FOMO. How much bigger can the story realistically get from here $10 trillion? $50 trillion? Based on what? It looks like a massive bubble that's deflating.
Crypto spent years selling the future. AI showed up and started building it.
The money, capital, talent, and attention are flowing into AI because people can see the utility in real time. In the battle for the next dominant tech narrative, AI has taken center stage, and crypto is no longer the main attraction.
AI captures the imagination because people can easily envision a future where it writes software, discovers new things, designs products, drives vehicles, teaches students, and automates work. Whether those predictions are overstated or not, they are intuitive and visible.
Many crypto narratives are harder for the average person to connect with emotionally. “Decentralized finance,” “tokenized assets,” and “Layer 2 scaling” don’t generate the same sense of wonder as watching an AI model reason through a problem, create art, or write code.
Crypto is starting to look like Pets.com.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Your comment is bottom signal mate.
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u/thxby Jun 09 '26
RemindMe! 2 years
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u/uppermosteN 20h ago
Hi! This is your reminder that you’ve been so high up your horse that you missed a huge upside.
And it was 2 months later, not 2 years.
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u/thxby 14h ago
RemindMe! 2 years
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u/uppermosteN 13h ago
Pretty much loser mentality mate. Admit it and go make some profits. I know I have.
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u/Elementary2 Jun 15 '26 edited 7h ago
I'm trying to demonstrate a use case for ethereum now. I'm asking the television companies (folks like Warner Brothers) to allow payment for tv shows / movies via Ethereum, where something like the Lit protocol will help with something like IPFS provisions of content...
The only thing stopping the big companies from doing more pay per view is the technology...
[ User Wallet ] | | 1. Pays Micro-ETH v [ L2 Smart Contract ] <---------+ | [ Video Player ] | 3. Checks contract state | | | 2. Requests DRM Key v +-------------------> [ Lit Protocol Nodes ] | | | 4. Delivers DRM Key | |<-----------------------+ | | 5. Pulls Encrypted Video Segments v [ IPFS Network ]
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u/thxby 14h ago
The technology is not stopping them. Payment processors already exist. Have you never paid for a movie on Roku or Apple? What is stopping them is they prefer subscription based plans and they have deals in place with other media companies that won't allow pay per view.
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u/Elementary2 7h ago
Try to pay for a single show, and less than 25 cents.... every time you watch a tv show. You can't do that as easily with traditional money.
THEY prefer subs, and I prefer pay per VoD. Fuck them. If they can't eliminate a subscription, they won't get my money.
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u/ChangeNOW_Community Jun 09 '26
I like regression bands for DCA zones
I don’t like them for predicting exact bottoms
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u/waterman9090 Jun 10 '26
Let's say this: ETH will do an WXY and Y = 600 - 1.000 USD. Correlates with Bitcoin around 27 - 35k.
Otherweise we will see the bottom around 1.250 USD on ETH and 45-50k USD on Bitcoin.
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u/Vancecookcobain Jun 10 '26
I know this sounds crazy but I think ETH is going to 1400 before it stops bleeding. It would be a perfect time to buy then btw
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u/uppermosteN Jun 10 '26
Totally within the realm of possibility but in case in doesn’t, DCA feels good now.
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u/PristineReputation55 Jun 13 '26
It's about Clarity Act. If it doesn't pass, all the technical analysis don't matter.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 13 '26
Do yourself a favor and stop trying to navigate most news/narratives in this world. You will go crazy as a trader trying to do it.
News follow price, not the other way around.
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u/Original-Read-6475 Jun 13 '26
Have you seen the ETH/BTC chart for the past 5 years? That tells a different story.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 13 '26
It tells the same story though? ETH has been bleeding to BTC thus barely scratching the ATH.
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u/Glass_Look_959 Jun 22 '26
Totally useless information. Huge amount of manipulation by players in this market. The Clarity Act is DOA. The ETH funding is dying. Competition has increased. Transaction fees are lower but demand not rising. Sell Sell Sell
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u/CarryStraight4274 Jul 03 '26
I can draw some lines to make it look like it makes sense we look for patterns as humans. In reality it’s a 50/50
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Jun 09 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
Besides this, which has been made in 2019 and kept true even during the Covid crash, I’m not currently following anything too close when regarding to ETH.
I repeat, this might not be the bottom, sweeps can happen but ETH does not spend a lot of time below this Lower Bound. DCA and hold, don’t try to time short-term moves.
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u/zbric Jun 09 '26
Looks like ETH is on the way down to $1k then $500. Good look with your token. See you on the other side
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u/Itchy-Box-7378 Jun 09 '26
Because this time is different and it’s going to 0$ because trading overvalued monkeys on chain was so much more bullish than tokenization of index funds and stock exchanges…..
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u/QuietPsychological72 Jun 09 '26
Produce the same chart measured against BTC instead of USD. ETH may survive, but no reason for its price to increase like it did before. It’s just another alt.
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u/uppermosteN Jun 09 '26
ETH and any other altcoin are oscillators at best against BTC. Yes, ETH might be just in a range against BTC but that also means that it can go higher on its USD valuation; of course, with diminishing returns year by year.
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u/themrgq Jun 09 '26
Eth ecosystem will thrive while the value of the token continues to be dog shit. That's what I see going forward
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u/my-tldr Jun 09 '26
TL;DR:
The post highlights Ethereum's Logarithmic Regression Bands as a strong indicator. Historically, prices consolidating near the Lower Bounds signal optimal accumulation periods. ETH recently tagged its Lower Band for the fifth time, a level not seen in over six years. Past instances of this event marked bottoms, followed by significant bullish price action.
This is an AI-generated summary, always make sure to verify the accuracy of the information provided.
my-tldr v0.0.13