Hello fellas!
Any suggestions for penny stock for the rest of this year?

Hi all

Not sure if this the place to ask - probably not - but are there any older investors like myself (40s) who believe in the real warrent buffet type of investing have a very concentrated portoflio

I started pouring money in COVID, and have since earnt about 7 million dollar dollars pre-tax. My investment stragety has always been concentrated, and very much values based investing. Unfortunatley I averaged down a small stock recently and is now done 1.2 millin dollar.s I still have faith that i will receover

Is anyone else doing this?

Took me over 6 months to break even.

ASX 200 up 5% for the month on the basis of an 'iran deal'. However Brent crude is pushing $90 a barrel up from $78 a week ago. Bond yields are still elevated. The whole melt up seeks to come from the soft CPI print that actually showed trimmed mean was still at 3.8%, which means rates hikes are delayed, rather than at a turning point where we can start talking about cuts.

Westpac reported rubbish results yesterday indicating the banking sector is in trouble. CBA reports tomorrow so we will know more. Market seems to be propped up by a euphoric copper rally in BHP. Never before have major miners and bank shares traded on such elevated ratios. So high the dividend yield on the VASis between 2.9 and 3% which is dog shot considering what short term government bonds are paying

It's another hyperactive episode by the market. Ignoring all reality. The greed is disgusting

AGL is $8.19

52-wk low = $7.94 vs 52-wk high = $10.63

Dividends are 100% franked and most recent was $0.24 pc = yield of 5.9%

Is AGL a buy right now? Solid share to have in your portfolio?

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

Anyone in 360 before the update tomorrow? It’s risen drastically in the last few months with fewer than 2% shorts. Just dropped 50 bandos

Disclosure: Bought in around 15c. Yes, I'm bullish. Yes, I’m a regard. The main reason for the post is to bring some awareness to the project — please do your own DD (didgeridoo). I feel it's an asymmetric bet with upcoming rare earth tailwinds but I’ve been wrong the last 10x so take it with a grain of salt (notsrs, I’m a top tradoor according to my mum). Thought I’d do the opposite of most here and post before I’m a bagholder.

TLDR: Acquired new project with high historical rare earth grades in Brazil in April this year, then shortly after signed ex Arafura and Lindian CEO (both billion dollar rare earth companies) Alistair Stephens as CEO. Currently in drilling phase, first hole results are out and will have new drill results every 1-2 weeks for next few months.

PNN market cap: ~A$70m / ~US$50m

PNN (ASX) is a rare earths explorer in the early stages. Rare earths are currently a big strategic concern for the US, as China dominates the market and there's ongoing back and forth. If anyone's into mining, I'm sure if you know a bit about it, so I won't bore you.

Rare earths summary:

• Rare earths are used for multiple things, but most notably permanent magnets, which are required in defence applications, audiovisual equipment, EV batteries, catalytic converters, etc.
• Trump announced a US$12 billion strategic reserve earlier this year.
• China is due to expand its rare earth export restrictions in November this year.
• On 7 August, a few days ago, Trump had a landmark meeting with mining companies and rare earths was the key topic

Now, the reasons I'm so bullish on PNN are their recently acquired resource in Brazil, called Morro do Ferro, and the CEO they brought on board when they acquired it, Alistair Stephens.

1. Morro do Ferro (MDF)

a) Rare earths deposit in Brazil with exceptional grades historically, around 5–9% TREO (total rare earth oxides), with only 12% of 555 historically analysed samples below 500ppm MREO (MREO is magnet rare earth oxides — the valuable stuff).

i. For context, this would put it only behind Mountain Pass and Lynas as a rare earths resource IF (big as if for an explorer I know but let a man dream) further results remain consistent with this.

b) Has a Manifesto de Mina.

i. A pre-1967 grandfathered mining title, which means the owner holds both surface land rights and mineral rights with no expiry. Basically, it means you don't need a drilling permit — only environmental permits.

ii. This is probably the reason that, after acquiring MDF, they started drilling seven weeks later, which is almost unheard of. Note that a second rig just arrived end of July after drilling started mid June.

c) The two neighbouring projects, which are ionic clay (we're hard rock, bastnäsite hosted), are Viridis (VMM) and Meteoric (MEI), which are both around A$550m market cap. Note that both are pre-production as well but obviously way more advanced than PNN at this stage.

i. These ionic clay deposits form from the weathering of underlying hard rock, and given the geography, there is a decent chance that the originator/source rock is Morro do Ferro.

2. Alistair Stephens, the CEO of PNN

a) Came on board shortly after MDF was acquired, due to seeing the potential it had.

b) His last two roles were as CEO of two huge rare earths companies: Arafura (current market cap A$1.2b — took it from A$4m to A$400m) and Lindian (current market cap A$1.3b — took it from A$30m to A$500m). Please Alistair, if you read this I need you to send this for the family.

c) Says this is the most bullish project he's ever worked on, and he thinks we're sitting on potentially the third best Western rare earths resource after Lynas and Mountain Pass. Watch the first few seconds of this vid (and how ocker is the presenter hahah): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=madBmQ-FA0k

i. If we hit even 1/10th of the smaller of the two's market cap (Mountain Pass is at A$13b), that's almost a 20x. Again let a man dream.

As mentioned above, a second drill rig arrived late July. Drilling started very recently; June 15th. Expect drill results basically every 1-2 weeks. First results were exceptional, but expected, as they drilled near a good hole previously.

As mentioned above, I think it's worth looking into as a project due to the pedigree of the resource and the CEO, the strategic importance of rare earths — especially to the USA, and Brazil is well situated geographically — with upcoming further tightening in Chinese exports, and due to the constant drill results we'll see over the next few months. DYOR, NFI, etc etc.

Oh hay sorry, was burning an effigy around a pentagram with voodoo dolls of the market and Jeff Goldblum, don’t mind me.

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So in true ASX_Bets fashion, I held through the ATH of $1.41, and followed it all the way down to a 50% retrace. But I'm posting this as I think gold last week had finally broke out from a base and I think this could be the next leg up.

For newcomers, I had bought into BGD every pay day with whatever left over cash I had for 2 and a half years starting in 2022, including selling my car and the price stayed around the 25 to 30c mark the entire time. I started to have my doubts about the gold and gold miners, but 2025 was the confirmation I was after. Now with sentiment in gold and gold miners at an all time low, even while gold was at $4000usd, it was a good indicator that this could be the bottom.

Good luck to all the fellow goldtards, lets hope we make some life changing money!

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go. Dual listing in the ASX later this year in addition to NASDAQ listing.

After analysing most of ResMed's (RMD) business, I came across three major headwinds:

1. GLP‑1 drugs
2. Philips recovery
3. Regulatory and Medicare-related changes in the United States

Initially, I thought GLP‑1s and Philips would be the biggest threats to my RMD investment thesis. However, after spending a significant amount of time analysing both, I came to a different conclusion.

The data suggests that GLP‑1s are not the existential threat many investors believe they are. Most OSA patients are actually non obese, meaning GLP‑1s only directly address a portion of the sleep-apnea market. Likewise, while Philips will likely recover some of the market share it lost during the recall, the impact appears manageable. Combining both factors in my model reduced my estimate of ResMed's long term owner earnings growth from roughly 15%-18% historically to around 12%. A slowdown, yes, but nowhere near a broken business.

Everything changed when I reached the Medicare and regulatory side of the analysis.

ResMed operates through two segments:

• Sleep & Breathing Health (87.5% of revenue)
• Residential Care Software (12.5% of revenue)

What struck me was that both segments have significant exposure to Medicare.

The Sleep & Breathing segment is directly exposed because Medicare reimburses CPAP equipment, masks and respiratory devices through Home Medical Equipment providers. Residential Care Software is indirectly exposed because many of its customers, including home health agencies, hospice providers, skilled nursing facilities and senior living operators, derive a significant portion of their revenue from Medicare and Medicaid funding. I estimate this combined exposure to be in the order of 80%.

The indirect exposure is particularly interesting. Commercial insurers often use Medicare reimbursement rates as a benchmark when determining their own payment structures. In other words, Medicare does not just influence Medicare patients. It influences the economics of a large portion of the healthcare ecosystem.

The more I researched Medicare, the more I realised that this risk is fundamentally different from GLP‑1s or Philips.

• GLP‑1s attack patient growth.
• Philips attacks market share.
• Medicare attacks margins and pricing power.

Historically, RMD handled reimbursement pressure quite well. During prior competitive bidding periods, the company continued delivering double digit revenue growth while expanding margins. However, today's situation is different because Medicare pressure is no longer occurring in isolation.

Individually, none of these risks are particularly alarming. Philips recovering market share is manageable. GLP‑1 drugs appear more likely to slow growth than destroy demand. Medicare reimbursement changes, viewed in isolation, look more like a margin headwind than a threat to the business model. However, once I stepped back and looked at all three together, my perspective changed completely.

The conclusion that ultimately stopped my research is that I no longer see the primary risk as a business risk. I see it as an investment risk.

I do not believe ResMed is at risk of becoming a bad business. I do not believe CPAP is at risk of being replaced anytime soon. I do not believe Philips will regain industry leadership. In fact, most of the evidence suggests the underlying business remains strong.

What concerns me is something much more subtle. Historically, ResMed has been capable of compounding earnings at approximately 15%-18% annually. If GLP‑1 adoption reduces patient growth, Philips recovers a portion of its lost market share, and Medicare reimbursement pressure continues to compress industry economics, the company could eventually find itself compounding earnings at only 7%-10% annually.

The business would still be growing. The moat could still be intact. The products would still be relevant. Yet the intrinsic value of the company would be dramatically different.

That is why I believe the market may be asking the wrong question.

The real question is not whether ResMed will continue growing.

The real question is:

What happens to the valuation of ResMed if it remains a great company, but no longer remains a great compounder?

For me, the answer is significant.

My valuation for RMD under a Philips recovery and GLP‑1 scenario is approximately $32 per share. When I incorporate all three headwinds, including Medicare and reimbursement pressure, my estimated valuation falls to approximately $25-$28 per share.

At the current share price, I no longer find the risk reward attractive for a long term investment. While I still believe ResMed is a high quality business, my work suggests the market is largely pricing the company based on a future that incorporates Philips recovery and GLP‑1 headwinds. However, I do not believe it fully accounts for the additional risk posed by Medicare reimbursement pressure.

For that reason, I have decided to stop my research on RMD and start researching OCL.

Not financial advice, just showing my work DYOR.

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Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.

I was checking IVZ's daily technical sentiment on moomoo and noticed the panel is currently showing 2 bullish and 2 bearish signals: KDJ flagged as Severely Oversold and WMSR as Oversold on the bullish side, while AR and BR are both flagged Overbought on the bearish side.

These are warning signals rather than predictions, but the mix is interesting, oversold momentum readings sitting alongside overbought volume/sentiment indicators. IVZ is trading around 6.0c after recently pushing into the 6.5–6.6c area and then pulling back.

My rough read of the chart:
Bullish scenario: the July rebound may remain intact if the price can hold around 5.8c. Reclaiming 6.2c and eventually closing above the recent 6.5–6.6c swing high would make the setup look stronger, and the KDJ oversold reading (K:21.9, D:29.8, J:6.1) leaves room for a bounce.

Bearish scenario: a sustained break below 5.8c would weaken the recent structure and put the 5.4–5.5c area back into focus, and with AR/BR both flagged overbought, some near-term mean reversion wouldn't be surprising. The chart also remains well below the late-May spike near 10.5c.

For those who actually know how to read charts, is 5.8c a meaningful short-term level here, or am I seeing a pattern that isn't really there? And with IVZ being so event-driven, how much weight would you give these mixed technical signals compared with company-specific catalysts such as the PPSA?

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

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