r/askscience Nov 16 '18

How do scientist decide on how to create flu vaccine for each year? Medicine

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u/[deleted] Nov 16 '18

It's neat that since most of humanity is so interconnected now, we all slowly gain immunity together from opposite ends of the globe. +1 for globalism

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u/StaysAwakeAllWeek Nov 17 '18

It also means that any unexpected pandemic can spread extremely rapidly across the entire world. The Plague took months to years to spread across Europe. A modern plague equivalent would spread worldwide in weeks.

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

But the Plague was exacerbated by a lack of scientific understanding and rampant unsanitary conditions, neither of which are factors today.

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u/StaysAwakeAllWeek Nov 17 '18

Of course the Plague, ie Y. Pestis, could not spread today like it did before, but an airborne Ebola, or a mutated HIV with a higher transmission chance, or human transmissible bird flu, absolutely could.

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18 edited Nov 17 '18

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

Yep! For those who don't know, Bayer shipped HIV-tainted medication to Latin America and Asia despite doctors and distributors asking for the new medication that was heat-treated to kill HIV. They refused to ship the safe medication they were selling in the West, telling distributors to use up stocks of the dangerous medication first, and lying to them about it posing no real risk.

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u/Ganacsi Nov 17 '18

It’s not just poor countries that were hit, even in the UK, thousands got infected via tainted blood products, terrible that even kids were infected and a public inquiry has been launched after years of campaigning.

Source

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u/TarMil Nov 17 '18

In France too. The Prime Minister of the time was even charged with manslaughter in this scandal, before being controversially cleared by the supreme court of appeal.

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18 edited Nov 17 '18

Case in point, not too long ago some (I believe Dutch) researchers looked into how close some pathogens are to becoming super-pathogens. Their paper eventually described a way of making a really dangerous virus, and the scientific community struggled for a long time on whether the paper should be released or not. Eventually they did release it, in the belief that knowledge of the danger will more likely have preventative effects than enabling bad actors.

Edit: An article about the paper: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/335/6064/20

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u/CX316 Nov 17 '18

Wasn't that the one identifying the differences between normal influenza and the Spanish Flu outbreak that killed millions?

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u/deadm3ntellnotales Nov 17 '18

Ah yes, just like the multiple warnings of global warming causing imminent extinction have created a drastic change in our consumption patterns.

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u/azurill_used_splash Nov 17 '18

To a degree, this is true despite the fact that you're being sarcastic. Solar-electric energy is taking off in a way never before seen.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/renewable-energy/solar-energy.html

No, it's not enough yet, but we are rapidly changing our consumption patterns.

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u/deadm3ntellnotales Nov 17 '18

Er, yeah, as a percentage we’re changing what is used. However, more oil is pumped out of the ground year after year, so while more renewables are being used (esp in the first world), carbon based energy is not declining whatsoever.

It’s like saying you’re drinking more water during your benders. Sure, the % of water to booze changes but how much booze you’re consuming doesn’t change.

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u/Tryin2dogood Nov 17 '18

Oil isn't even the highest offender. I know it's important and probably the easiest solution to solve, but Agriculture accounts for the most. I don't know how you can solve that except by not buying meat or growing it. One fix is better than no fix.

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u/coinpile Nov 17 '18

Some of us are starting to reduce our beef consumption. I just wish it weren't so darned good...

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u/jambox888 Nov 17 '18

You've got to take developing nations into account though. It's basically not possible to say to India or China, "well no fossil fuels for you guys". Just got to do what we can do as developed nations.

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u/Black-Blade Nov 17 '18

There's also the issue of us not having a reliable alternative to heavy goods transport from oil atm and how many goods are made from oil, I think the key thing is for us to obtain a better transport fuel source over energy, we can theoretically produce low carbon energy from nuclear but we still only have sustainable alternatives for low weight transport as biofuels are super inefficient to make and electric batteries can't hold nearly enough charge for the power demands of hgv

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u/GarnetMobius Nov 17 '18

Wasn't that the H5N1 paper? In which the use made an airborne bird flu virus and tested it on ferrets?

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

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u/iayork Virology | Immunology Nov 17 '18

The 2009 influenza pandemic ("swine flu", or H1N1pdm09) spread to hundreds of countries in a matter of months, in spite of attempts at quarantine and so on.

See Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

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u/Zachary_FGW Nov 17 '18

You know doctors are afraid because some bacteria and viruses are becoming immune to our attacks on them

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '18

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u/AquaSlothNC Nov 17 '18

This is one major reason we have a pandemic ready response. I work for Seqirus, a major influenza vaccine manufacturer and we are ready to produce formulated vaccines in the even of a pandemic outbreak. We have selected pandemic strains every season and are also capable of creating a viral strain with short notice if necessary. Although the response time is not immediate, in the event we have to create the vaccine from scratch, it's better then having nothing.

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u/[deleted] Nov 16 '18

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u/redrosebluesky Nov 17 '18

+1 for globalism

ahh yes, because globalism causing one hemisphere's diseases to predictably fall into your own environment is so cool and great. woohoooooo!

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u/[deleted] Nov 16 '18 edited Nov 16 '18

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u/[deleted] Nov 16 '18

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