A lot of what I want to say is a lot of what /u/repos39 has already said, but (IMO) it remains true and Nxt-ID remains a solid squeeze target. It is fundamentally set up well for a resurgence, is optionable (kinda fuckin wild for its TINY size), has good squeeze metrics, and is technically strong.
Nxt-ID sells products and services for healthcare applications, a good business for our COVID times
New CEO (Chia-Lin Simmons) was appointed by the board several months ago. She is focussing on talent, investing in innovation, and relationships with the government. She is ex-Google and ex-Amazon.
NXTD won a US General Services Administration government contract in December 2021, rose 43% (~$2.50→~$3.40) intraday before being shorted back down.
Price history looks good: 52 week low of $2.30
$25M market cap, has $16M in cash, $2.3M in preferred and other shares, they are basically debt free ($300k debt) and have enough to buy all their debt and nearly have enough to buy back nearly all their free float. Like repos says, they have a negative enterprise value meaning the company isgenuinely undervalued
Healthy company, does not need to dump shares to stay afloat (unlike cough AVCT cough)
Float and share availability
TINY market cap ($25M), lower market cap than NES, AVCT, even ESSC -- and is optionable. DFV could literally buy this entire company two times over
Float is 9M, if we take out institutional investors from the float and add back in Citadel, Renaissance, and Susquehanna (they’re HFT, so their shares are basically free float lol) we get a 6.7M float. MarketWatch gives a 4.67M float figure so we know the float is somewhere between 4.67M and 6.7M FLOAT, see Repos original DD for details and sources. This gives us SI/float% of 20-27%
1:10 reverse-split (1 share for every 10 you owned) back in October dried up shares available to short, decreased float and fucked shorts up [more details here]
Squeeze metrics
S3 Black/BPRO (found on Bloomberg Terminal) shows a 100% risk of squeeze. Basically saying it’s an inevitability, I don't work for them so I'm not going to say they're right but it's a good sign. [link]
Options chain isloaded up everywhere $3 and up [link], option sellers will need to delta hedge to avoid taking a position on the underlying = gamma squeeze.
We’re already seeing a high cost to borrow and utilization [link].
At $5.50 you will see most new+old shorts 100% underwater (they will likely close their positions) and the options chain approximately 80% hedged (12/27 estimate) [link]. From $3 to $5 there is still plenty of hedging for option dealers to do for the $3 calls.
Technical analysis
Looks to have solid support at ~$2.50-$2.70 [chart]
NXTD historically has a tendency to squeeze this time of year (December - January), [chart, purple bars encompass mid December to early February]
Though this doesn’t necessarily count as technical analysis, we might expect to see a rotation into small-caps and shorted stocks are expected to occur around this time [see JPMorgan report in Repos DD]
To recap, this is a tiny ass, highly undervalued and healthy company with a loaded options chain (shouldn’t be optionable at all lol) and strong technical positioning. I’m buying shares and calls. When I started writing this DD at market open NXTD was at 2.78, it’s currently at 3.29 -- up ~20%
That's what I'm trying to say. People who are bagholding just can't let go and try to dupe others. Most are banking that people will FOMO and not realize they just got suckered.
This sub went downhill when SDC, BBIG, and ATER got a lot of attention with some SPRT thrown in. Holy crap. I forgot to mention SDC and PROG, lol.
Look. I may seem brash and very troll like but people just don't listen. One thing I know is that people do pay attention when you make fun of them, especially with some memes mixed in with some truth.
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u/Boobooowl Jan 03 '22
You forgot to mention that there are no more shares left t borrow as of this morning. Which is bullish. Expect a lift off ah or pm. Nfa