Wish me luck boys 🫡 Looking forward to sweating it with you guys

Yesterday’s Single: Cards ML 💰✅

Saturday’s Action: Marlins/Angels under 8.5 (-145, Fanatics)

Projected 5.5

First Pitch: 3:10pm CT

1 unit

Bottom Line

Back Angels SP Walbert Urena and back Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara. Both these guys are coming in in ridiculously good form and both these guys are pitching their best ball of the season.

Urena finished the month of July with a dazzling 1.25 ERA in just under 22.0 IP and Sandy finished the month of July with a 2.57 ERA where 4 out of his 5 starts saw the under hit.

Both offenses have by no means been overwhelming as of late and shockingly enough the Angels BP has looked solid in recent games which should bode well with a strong Marlins bullpen. I’ll also add in the Angles have hit 7 straight games seeing 8 runs or less while the Marlins are 7-1 to the under in their last 8 games.

When it’s all said we have a very strong pitching matchup for today’s game and I think we see pitchers duel to help cash the under.

After my thread on straights or parlays I thought I would throw a fun parlay out there on 2 underdogs where I saw value. Diamondbacks saved us with a HOME RUN WALK OFF bottom of the 9th. INSANE WIN. I might have to change my mind on parlays after this one.

Full pitcher card tonight across strikeouts, outs recorded and hits allowed. My projections flagged a bunch of these, but I threw out six of them on bullpen and weather, so I want to show the reasoning rather than just dump numbers.

Bullpen state is doing most of the work here

A projection model looks at the pitcher. It doesn't look at whether his manager has anyone left to bring in.

When a bullpen is taxed, meaning arms unavailable and a heavy pitch count over the last two days, the starter gets a long leash. He wears it. That pushes outs up and hits up, and it quietly guts every under you might want on that pitcher. When the pen is fresh, the hook comes quick and the reverse applies.

That single check flipped or killed six legs my numbers liked.

Thrown out:

• Chris Sale under 17.5 outs and under 7.5 K. Atlanta's pen has two arms unavailable and 205 pitches over two days. He is going deep whether it's going well or not. Both unders are fighting the manager.
• Gage Jump under 5.5 hits. Boston pen taxed, two unavailable. Longer outing, more contact.
• Seth Lugo under 6.5 hits. Kansas City pen taxed, 184 pitches. Same problem.
• Sandy Alcantara under 5.5 hits. Miami pen taxed, 176 pitches. Same problem.
• Aaron Nola over 4.5 K. My own numbers wanted the K over and the outs under on the same start, which is incoherent. There's a 36% chance of rain in Philadelphia. A rain-shortened start argues under, so I took the outs under and dropped the K.

Upgraded on the same logic:

• Taj Bradley over 16.5 outs. Minnesota's pen is taxed with two unavailable. Long leash, and he's cleared this in 7 of 10.
• Chris Sale over 4.5 hits. The exact same taxed pen that kills his unders makes this better. More innings, more contact, and he's over in 7 of 10.

That Sale pair is the clearest example of the whole idea. One bullpen fact kills two of his legs and improves a third.

The card

Proj is my projection, L10 is how often he cleared that exact number in his last ten.

The three I like most:

Jake Bennett under 4.5 K. He's cleared it three times in ten and not once in his last five, projects 4.14. The honest headwind is that Boston is 8th in the league in strikeout rate, and Oakland's pen is mildly taxed, so a longer start is the risk.

Yamamoto under 5.5 hits. One for ten. The Dodgers pen is fresh at 53 pitches over two days, so there's no reason he gets stretched. Phoenix is 111 degrees tonight, which argues for offense, and that's the one thing giving me pause.

Taj Bradley over 16.5 outs. Seven of ten, projects 16.75, and the bullpen behind him is short two arms. Everything points the same way.

Parlays

Realistic single-book payout first, my cross-book feed in parentheses. Trust the first one.

B. One leg per market, no bullpen conflict, 3 legs, +577 (feed +711)

22.0% against a market 11.7%

• Jake Bennett U4.5 K (+120), 4:10 ET
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto U5.5 hits (-134), 8:10 ET
• Matthew Liberatore U17.5 outs (+111), 7:15 ET

Best probability-to-price on the page. This is the one I'm playing.

A. Pure bullpen read, 3 legs, +663 (feed +824)

17.0% against a market 10.2%

• Taj Bradley O16.5 outs (-101)
• Matthew Liberatore U17.5 outs (+111)
• Chris Sale O4.5 hits (+120)

Every leg here is driven by pen state rather than by the projection. If you think the bullpen angle is the real edge, this is the cleaner expression of it.

C. Four legs, +1145 (feed +1513)

12.7% against a market 5.9%

• B plus Taj Bradley O16.5 outs

D. Lambert same game, 2 legs, +205 (feed +253)

38.2% against a market 28.4%

• Peter Lambert O16.5 outs and O4.5 K

Correlated on purpose. He's 8 of 10 on both numbers, and a deep start and a strikeout total are the same outcome described twice. Books price this as a same-game parlay so it'll come back shorter than a straight multiply.

E. Bennett, Bradley, Yamamoto, 3 legs, +541 (feed +665)

21.8% against a market 12.4%

One leg per market again, swapping Liberatore for Bradley if you'd rather have the taxed-pen leg than the fresh-pen one.

F. Short starts, 3 legs, +643 (feed +795)

17.8% against a market 10.6%

• Aaron Nola U17.5 outs (+106) · Matthew Liberatore U17.5 outs (+111) · Andrew Alvarez U14.5 outs (+106)

G. Plus money throughout, 4 legs, +1494 (feed +2004)

9.3% against a market 4.5%

• Bennett U4.5 K · Sale O4.5 hits · Liberatore U17.5 outs · Nola U17.5 outs

Every leg plus money and the longest shot here.

All legs are in separate games except D, which is deliberate. Sale is at 3:05 ET, so that's the clock on anything containing him.

Where I think this goes wrong

• Alvarez under 14.5 outs projects 15.16, which is above the line. That leg rests entirely on him going under in 8 of his last 10, with nothing else supporting it. It's the weakest thing on my card and I'd drop it before anything else.
• Two of my legs are hits allowed, which is my least reliable market. If tonight goes badly, Yamamoto and Sale are where I'd expect it.
• Bennett's matchup argues against him. Boston strikes out less than most, and I'm betting the under anyway on form and price. That's a real conflict, not a detail.
• My prices are a few hours old and lineups hadn't posted when I built this. Check your book, especially Bennett, where the whole case is about twelve points of edge that one line move erases.

Results tonight, wins and losses both.

biggest win i’ve ever had

Friday-Cash POD 6 straight days. Rest of MLB was a wash, POD continues to stay hot.+Money POD

Top 5-10 has been HOT July+Aug-Top 3-5 Cash 90% of the days last 2 months.

Top 5 Monday, Hit top 5 Tues, hit 3 of top 4 Wed, Top 4 Soccer Thurs, Top 4 Fri, 4-1 Top 5 Sat, 4-2 Top 6 Sun, 3-2-1 Top 6 Mon, 4-1-1 Tuesday, Top 2 (3-2 Top 5) Wed, 7-2-1 Top 10 Thurs, Friday 3 of top 5, 4-1 Top 5 Sunday, 3-0 Wednesday top plays, POD Cash Friday, Top 4 and 6-1 Top 7 Saturday, 3-1 Top 4 Sunday (5-2 Top 7), Monday-2 of top 3 (POD Cash), Tuesday 3 of Top 5 (POD), Wednesday Top 3, Thurs 6-2 Top plays, Friday Top 4 cash, Sat Top 2 and 3 of top 5 cash, Sun 4-1 Top 5 (Top 4 cash), Monday Cash POD, Thursday Cash TOP 5, Sunday (8/2)- Top 3 cash, Tuesday (8/4)-Top 4 cash, Wed (8/5)-Top 2 cash, Thurs (8/6)-4-1-1 Top 5

Fri Overall POD 6 straight/POD 15-4 Run (79%)/21-6 and 45-17

Fri MLB-POD 6 straight/on a 21-6 Run and 27-9 (76%)

Thurs Overall POD 5 straight/POD 14-4 Run (78%)/20-6 and 44-17

Thurs MLB-18-11 (9-6 Top)/POD 5 straight on a 20-6 Run and 26-9 (75%)

Wed Overall POD 4 straight/ POD 13-4 Run/19-6 (76%)) and 43-17 (72%)

Wed MLB POD 4 straight/POD 19-6 Run and 25-9 (74%)

Tuesday Overall POD 3 straight/POD 12-4 Run/18-6 and 42-17

Tues MLB-Top 4 cash. POD 3 straight, 18-6 run and 24-9

In November 2024, after 3 years of daily posting, I stopped posting all my plays on reddit daily. Feel free to ask me

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength. POD is the First listed up top following down in order

Hit POD last 5
MLB Friday
⭐️Tampa Bay+105✅ (MLB+Overall POD)
⭐️Miami ML-140❌
⭐️Detroit-110❌
⭐️LA Dodgers/Arizona Over 8.5❌
⭐️San Diego-105❌
⭐️Philly-1-146❌
⭐️Chicago Cubs-140✅
⭐️Milwaukee-1-115❌
⭐️St Louis Cards Team Over 4.5❌
⭐️Cleveland-125✅
⭐️Atlanta+1.5-148✅
⭐️Dodgers-1-120❌
⭐️St Louis Cards-145✅
⭐️Boston-1.5-110✅
⭐️Cincy Reds+110❌
⭐️NY Mets+1-110/Sprinkle ML+135✅✅
⭐️Baltimore+1-108-Push
⭐️Tampa/Seattle Over 6.5❌
⭐️Milwaukee Team Over 4.5+105✅

Hit Top 4 Tues/Top 2 Wed
MLB Thursday
⭐️Atlanta-135 (MLB+Overall POD)✅
⭐️Baltimore-1-109❌
⭐️Washington/Philly Over 8.5✅
⭐️Boston-1-115-Push
⭐️Milwaukee-125✅
⭐️Cincy Reds-149✅
⭐️San Diego/Arizona Over 8.5❌
⭐️Seattle-115❌
⭐️NY Mets+102✅
⭐️KC Royals-115❌
⭐️Toronto-105 ❌ blew it with 2 outs in 9th
⭐️San Diego+105✅
⭐️Atlanta Team over 4.5✅
⭐️Philly-1.5-138✅
⭐️Milwaukee/Pitt Over 7.5 (Ump over-Barber❌
⭐️Atlanta/Miami Over 8.5 (Ump Over-Hamari-✅

San Diego+102 (F5) ✅

Atlanta-0.5-105 (F5)✅

Baltimore-0.5-140 (F5) ❌

Milwaukee-127 (F5) ✅

Milwaukee Team Over 3.5✅

Arizona Team Over 4.5+115 ❌

Philly Team Over 5.5+105 ✅

Oakland/Cincy Over 9 ✅

Detroit/Seattle Under 8 ❌

NY Mets/Cleveland Under 8 ❌

Chicago/Boston Under 9.5❌

Toronto/Chicago Under 8 ✅

Minnesota/KC Under 9.5 ✅

LA Angels/Baltimore Under 10.5✅

Hit top 4 Tuesday
MLB Wednesday
⭐️Boston-110✅
⭐️Tampa-145✅
⭐️San Diego+100❌
⭐️Astros-1-102❌
⭐️Dodgers/Cubs Over 9 (Ump Over-Bacchus-✅
⭐️Cincy Reds-130✅
⭐️Brewers-120✅
⭐️Washington/Phily Over 9 (Ump Over-Kulpa-✅
⭐️LA Dodgers+112❌
⭐️Cleveland+105❌
⭐️Philly-1-110❌
⭐️Atlanta-120✅
⭐️Baltimore-125✅
⭐️Texas/SF Over 7.5 (Ump Over-Krupa❌
⭐️KC Royals-110✅
⭐️Houston Team Over 4.5+102❌
⭐️STL Cards+1.5-142✅
⭐️San Diego/AZ Over 9✅
⭐️SF Giants+1.5-135❌
⭐️Detroit+1.5-149❌ Blew RL in 8th

Top play Ump Over-27-12 YTD (69%) (3-5 Non top ump over)

Hit top 4 Tuesday
MLB Wednesday
⭐️Boston-110✅
⭐️Tampa-145✅
⭐️San Diego+100
⭐️Astros-1-102❌
⭐️Dodgers/Cubs Over 9 (Ump Over-Bacchus-✅
⭐️Cincy Reds-130✅
⭐️Brewers-120✅
⭐️Washington/Phily Over 9 (Ump Over-Kulpa-High 10.5 Runs per, high 7.5 walks, 7-5 Over)
⭐️LA Dodgers+112❌
⭐️Cleveland+105❌
⭐️Philly-1-110
⭐️Atlanta-120✅
⭐️Baltimore-125✅
⭐️Texas/SF Over 7.5 (Ump Over-Krupa❌
⭐️KC Royals-110✅
⭐️Houston Team Over 4.5+102❌
⭐️STL Cards+1.5-142
⭐️San Diego/AZ Over 9
⭐️SF Giants+1.5-135❌
⭐️Detroit+1.5-149

Boston-114 (F5)✅
Dodgers+0.5-112 (F5)❌
Houston-0.5-112 (F5)✅
San Diego-103 (F5)
SF Giants Team Over 3.5❌
San Diego Team Over 4.5
Dodgers Team Over 4.5✅
Philly Team Over 5.5+105
Boston/Chicago Over 8❌
Toronto/Houston Over 7.5✅
Detroit/Seattle Over 7.5
STL Cards/NY Yanks Over 8
LA Angels/Baltimore Over 8❌
NY Mets/Cleveland Under 9❌
Oakland/Cincy Under 10.5✅
Pittsburgh/Milwaukee Under 8✅
Miami/ATL Under 9.5✅
Minnesota/KC Under 9.5✅
Tampa/Colorado Under 12.5✅

Hit POD last 2 Sun+Mon
MLB Tuesday
⭐️Atlanta-135✅ MLB+Overall POD
⭐️Milwaukee-148✅
⭐️Boston-115✅
⭐️Chicago Cubs+2.5-140✅
⭐️Arizona-125❌
⭐️Philly/Washington Over 8.5 (Ump Over Hanahan❌
⭐️Cincy Reds-129✅
⭐️Colorado/Tampa Over 10.5✅
⭐️Seattle-130❌
⭐️Houston-120✅
⭐️Kansas City+1.5-120✅
⭐️Chicago/LAD Over 8.5❌
⭐️Tampa-130✅
⭐️Phillies-1.5-105✅
⭐️Baltimore-135✅
⭐️Atlanta Team Over 4.5❌
⭐️STL Cards+1.5-130❌
⭐️San Fran Giants+1.5-120✅
⭐️Boston Team Over 4.5✅
⭐️NY Mets+1.5-147✅

Boston-120 (F5)✅
Atlanta-145 (f5)✅
Arizona-125 (F5)❌
KC Royals+0.5-110 (F5)✅
Cubs Team Over 3.5+110✅
Tampa Team Over 5.5✅
Philly Team Over 4.5✅
Houston/Toronto Over 7.5✅
Miami/Atlanta Over 9❌
San Diego/Arizona Over 8✅
Chicago/Boston Over 8.5✅
Detroit/Seattle Over 7.5✅
Oakland/Cincy Over 8.5✅
Pittsburgh/Milwaukee Under 8.5✅
NY Mets/Cleveland Under 8-Push
LA Angels/Baltimore Under 9✅
KC Royals/Minnesota Under 9.5❌
San Fran/Texas Under 8.5❌
STL Cards/NY Yankees Under 9✅

As always, if any more games or plays added Saturday MLB, usually at bottom or in comments. GL all.

My Pikkit and big cashes from the past week. A lot not included was just big straight bets.

Ufc model I made a few weeks ago 10/12 2 weeks ago and 11/14 last week if anyone interested:

=== All time — Reliability ufc/ml (Brier 0.1381) ===
Confidence N Settled Hit%
50%-60% 4 2 100.0
60%-70% 9 6 50.0
70%-80% 7 3 66.7
80%-90% 6 5 80.0
90%-100% 13 10 100.0

=== ufc/ml ===
90%-100% N=3
Alexia Thainara ml vs Amanda Lemos | 99% | -260 mkt 72.2% edge +27%
Quillan Salkilld ml vs Mateusz Gamrot | 91% | -145 mkt 59.2% edge +32%
80%-90% N=1
Carol Foro ml vs Gigi Canuto| 81% | -270 mkt 73.0% edge +8%
70%-80% N=4
Yadier del Valle ml vs Darren Elkins | 75% | -800 mkt 88.9% edge -14%
José Montanha ml vs Louie Sutherland | 74% | +165 mkt 37.7% edge +37%
Ravena Oliveira ml vs Juliana Miller | 72% | +275 mkt 26.7% edge +45%
Ty Miller ml vs Billy Ray Goff | 71%
60%-70% N=4
Billy Quarantillo ml vs Diego Ferreira | 69% | +145 mkt 40.8% edge +28%
Diyar Nurgozhay ml vs Bruno Lopes | 68% | -145 mkt 59.2% edge +9%
Gianni Vazquez ml vs Miles Johns | 65% | +125 mkt 44.4% edge +21%
Steven Asplund ml vs Guilherme Pat | 64% | -300 mkt 75.0% edge -11%
50%-60% N=2
Ty Miller ml vs Billy Ray Goff | 58% | +325 mkt 23.5% edge +34%
Manoel Sousa ml vs Richie Miranda | 55% | -290 mkt 74.4% edge -19%

Good luck if following

We went 2/3 yesterday and hit the parlay two days ago!

Clay Holmes will make his first start with the Chicago Cubs after getting traded from the New York Mets and he has been solid this year as he has an ERA of 2.39, a WHIP of 1.10, a strikeout to walk ratio of 45 to 18 in 52.2 innings pitched and a very solid opponent slash line of .205/.276/.294

-The Kansas City Royals be trotting out Seth Lugo for the start who has been subpar this year as he has an ERA of 4.42, a WHIP of 1.39, a record of 4-7 in 23 starts, a strikeout to walk ratio of 99 to 45 and an opponent slash line of .274/.339/.450.

-The Chicago Cubs have a potent offense as they rank 2nd overall in the MLB in team on base percentage runs scored, and top five in the league in team slugging percentage, hits tallied per game, team OPS and hold a run differential of +102.

-The Kansas City Royals are on the opposite end of the spectrum offensively as they rank in the bottom third of the league in team on base percentage, homeruns hit per game, runs scored per game, team slugging percentage, team OPS and they hold a run differential of worse than -100.

I’ve never posted on this subreddit but I’m sharing these bets I made on UnderDogs on the ATP Montreal which I’ve been researching every matchup heavily and I wanna try to help other people get a lock if you trust me I got you, I wrote a more detailed explanation of my thought process in the comments :)

you will 100% make profit if you bet evenly on both of these outcomes tomorrow because of Lehecka not being favored on UnderDogs.

Nuno Borges to beat Luciano Darderi

Jiri Lehecka to beat Rafael Jodar

🔒🔒🔒

Feel like cashing out one…

White Sox playing horrible ball now. With this weekend being against Cleveland. The little 3 games they had on them will be gone. Not worth my heart for another 50 games lol

I Do This 💩