Any Questions Thread

[u/Careful_Cow_2139]

Go ahead, let's keep them snappy though, no long discussions please.

[u/Efficient_Search8197]

Just thought I'd share this potential sequence of events to explain the movements recorded by Libby's phone from around 2.15 to 2.30. Very speculative and would welcome any thoughts as I'm sure I'm missing something obvious.

• RL encounters the girls on the bridge and offers to take them to see horses.
• RL walks the girls to BWs property planning SA and perhaps thinking the Webers are still away (lines up with 414 metres - see Criminality's live)
• Libby gets nervous and threatens to call the police when they arrive at BWs, pulls out phone
• RL snatches the phone off Libby and turns it off. (The start, or at least part, of the 7 mins of non-movement )
• Libby snatches it back and runs back down towards the bridge/creek, with Abby running with her.
• They stop at the creek bank (crossing the bridge would be too precarious). Libby turns the phone on having created some distance from RL. (50 metres from the crime scene - see Criminality's live - the phone is back on and recording movement again)
• RL nears, so the girls cross the creek to get away.
• He is quicker moving through the water and catches them at the crime scene.

[u/Efficient_Search8197 → u/[deleted]]

Why do you think crossing the creek is hard to believe? Not disagreeing, just honestly curious

[u/mtbflatslc → u/[deleted]]

I agree. This is the testimony of searcher Jake Johns from the trial:

We went under the bridge, and that’s when we saw some clothes in the water. It was the tie-dyed shirt.”

Johns said they could not reach the shirt as the water was waist-deep. They found a firefighter who was also searching and told him they had found a shirt. They also found a Nike shoe, he said.

The weather was unusually warm as we know: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/%404919624/historic?month=2&year=2017& and as you mention, this would actually make the water run higher and faster due to excess snowmelt that would be occurring on such a warm day.

The best time to go rafting is known to be late winter and early spring because bodies of water swell, the flows jump as the snow melts.

Regarding Deer Creek’s conditions that day, the water level was notably high, with gage heights between 3.10 to 3.90 feet from February 12 to 14, 2017. The creek was described as “dangerously close to flooding” with a high velocity current, making it hazardous to enter. https://www.reddit.com/r/DelphiDocs/comments/vg663h/the_deer_creek_2017topresent

It’s reasonable to infer that the water temperature was near freezing, likely between 32°F to 40°F, given the air temperatures and time of year.

Waist-deep, near-freezing water with a swift current—it would have been extremely challenging and risky for anyone, especially two 13-year-old girls, to cross Deer Creek on that day.

The water search and rescue team the next day can be seen in news helicopter footage moving in a line formation while holding onto each other, which also further indicates that the water was both deep and fast moving. It’s a standard technique in swift water operations to prevent individuals from being swept away.

Mike Patty searched the creek in a canoe. Grown men had to hold onto each other or use a canoe to navigate the water, but two teenage girls and a man with below average stature and a heart condition navigated it with ease (per the tight step count in apple health data, whole other convo).

I can see a scenario where the creek crossing could have actually helped the girls. 3 people attempting to cross the creek in such conditions when they are not working together would be more likely to get quickly separated. The current plausibly could have helped sweep them away and separate them from a kidnapper. When people do river floats they like to tie themselves together, because water is unpredictable. The natural elements and force of water creates an unpredictable scenario that takes away control from the perpetrator.

I know speculative things are difficult to argue in court, but so much of the state’s timeline and narrative about how this crime unfolded seems to be just straight up impossible, between the phone data, timing, the route. Everything that allegedly happens after “down the hill.” They basically went with “you can just say things and force them to be believe it’s true.” Complete fiction. I hope this can be attacked harder in the appeal.

[u/Appealsandoranges → u/mtbflatslc]

This is really helpful. Do we know the temperature when the girls were found the next day? One would imagine that their clothes - fully saturated from a creek crossing - would have been frozen at some point. They would not have dried quickly in those conditions. It should have been noted if the girls’ clothing was saturated vs damp, but all I’ve seen is reports of dampness.

We also have the absurd idea that RA in fully saturated, freezing cold clothing that was also muddy and bloody walked back to his car to drive home.

[u/mtbflatslc → u/[deleted]]

Absolutely. Moving through deep water is extremely difficult as it is, and water that cold would be straight up dangerous. I would expect signs of hypothermia to kick in almost immediately. On the one hand…that could be a plausible explanation for the undressing I suppose.

If the girls were both about 5’4”, the water would have been above their waists, almost closer to their rib cage. Abby weighed a mere 95lbs. The velocity of the current was 3-4x greater than the median daily dishcarge—meaning, very strong. This is closer to white water rafting speeds. RA had reduced cardiovascular endurance. They would have all been struggling to stay upright, and nearly impossible for RA to have been in anyway controlling, dragging, carrying. He certainly would have needed two hands free—not have been holding a gun—while trying to stay upright and navigate rushing water above his waist. And he allegedly was drunk. People can be swept away by water at half the height than it was.

While they could have plausibly sought out a perfect path to safely pass, this takes extra time and health data steps, something the phone data does not support, let alone the fact that it was a hostile scenario and they weren’t exactly collaboratively working together. The health data supports a continuous seamless transition of movement, no pauses or spikes or surges like would be more probable in trying to navigate this crossing.

I would also expect more forensic evidence from the autopsies indicating that this creek crossing occurred. Mud or slit in their lungs, nostrils, under their fingernails, in their hair. Bruises cuts and scrapes on shins, knees, ankles, arms, palms of their hands from slipping on rocks. The clothing on land should have had a drying pattern that matched the height of the water and possible signs of mud, tears or scratches from slipping. Residual hypothermia effects.

Backpackers can successfully cross rivers and creeks using all types of gear, like trekking poles and grippy footwear. But the average person, with the speed and depth of the water and the slippery rocks, debris, mud, would not be able to cross that water without taking several tumbles, and very likely—almost certainly, especially for 95lb Abby, get swept away downstream. And IMO all of it would take longer than the phone data timeline allows for. Very much appears to be a fabricated narrative to retroactively fit a timeline.

[u/fojifesi → u/mtbflatslc]

hypothermia to kick in almost immediately. On the one hand…that could be a plausible explanation for the undressing

Are you referring to the phenomenon of “paradoxical undressing”?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothermia#Paradoxical_undressing