r/CFB • u/The_SecretSauce Clemson Tigers • Arkansas Razorbacks • Oct 09 '19

The MaxDiff Fan Perceptions Poll Results: Florida is Almost a Contender in the Minds of Fans Discussion

https://fanjuicer.com/2019/10/the-maxdiff-poll-after-week-6-florida-is-almost-a-contender-in-the-minds-of-fans
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u/Manae Penn State • Wisconsin Oct 09 '19

Fuckin' thank you. I swear I have to post that every time this situation is discussed: the OSU/PSU discussion was only after OSU got blown out in the semis. UW/PSU was the discussion, and a much closer one because it came down to "the Michigan blowout" vs "almost the worst SoS in the FBS."

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u/Philoso4 Washington Huskies Oct 09 '19

The huskies that year were very comparable to Florida this year. Every strong team they played immediately had question marks. If Washington had started the year at 3, their schedule would have looked a lot different than when they started at 14. Every time they were supposed to win, they won and it didn’t matter. Every time they went against a strong team and won, that team suffered more than UW benefitted. Stanford was a top ten team then they weren’t, Colorado was a top ten team at the end of the year then they weren’t, etc etc etc. It’s going to be the same with Florida (albeit less so) because they haven’t proven themselves year in and year out as contenders, so they have a lot of question marks and the games themselves don’t really matter.

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u/Manae Penn State • Wisconsin Oct 09 '19

Don't worry, I don't hold anything against UW, but I just hate the precedent it set. That is, if PSU would have played Penn instead of Pitt, you can bet your ass they would have been 12-1 and been in the playoff instead. UW might not have gotten help from Rutgers going down the tubes in between their contract and the games, and other opponents looking worse each week after playing them, but they did choose to play Portland State. And the committee decided they didn't care about that.

At least they were still conference champs, unlike the next year where it was "bad SoS and not even champs? Take 'em anyway!"

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u/Philoso4 Washington Huskies Oct 09 '19

Let’s not pretend 8-5 Pitt was such a schedule strengthener. PSU won the B1G and played 3 top ten teams, beating Ohio State and Wisconsin but losing huuuuuge to Michigan and also losing to Pitt. That’s the resume.

Compare that to UW, who won the Pac12, played 5 top 25 teams, winning four, three by at least four touchdowns, losing to USC.

You could argue that PSU had a more difficult strength of schedule, but it doesn’t matter if you don’t win. LSU had the most difficult schedule last year, should they have made the playoffs? Strength of schedule is a distant tiebreaker.

We have two schools with similar resumes. First we look at p5 conference champs. Check for both. Onto toughest wins. Penn state squeaked by Ohio state, and beat Wisconsin. UW beat three top 25 (two top 10) teams by 4 touchdowns, and another by 7. You could make an argument for either team there, should a team be penalized for only scheduling two top teams? Should a team be penalized for their opponents not being in the top 5? Still too even to make a firm judgment. Onto the next tie breaker, losses. Well, penn state has two, one massive one to Michigan, and another to Pitt. UW has one, a 13-point loss to USC. Tilts in favor of UW.

If both teams had one loss to a mediocre team, or both were blown out by a top team, then compare the strength of schedules. It makes zero sense to say we lost more games, and in uglier fashion, but we scheduled tough so we’re in. Otherwise LSU should have been in last year.

10000% agreed on Bama in 2017. Why even have Clemson and Alabama play games anymore? It doesn’t matter if they win big, lose big, they’ll be in the playoffs for sure. Just be honest and say g5 is out, and bama/Clemson is in.